So, here is my traditional moan about how much I hate our ridiculously high, undemocratic threshold. With graphs, because it’s pretty reasonable to be visual about these things:
This is the 2014 party vote. (note: hilariously UF’s party vote is so small at .2% that it rounds down to 0%, making Peter Dunne the only overhang seat this term) I have grouped all parties that have never been in parliament into “Others”, for obvious reasons. Note how the slices suddenly get thicker at the end? That’s because I’ve used the Electoral Comission’s default sorting which sorts by whether a party is in parliament first, then by party votes. Let’s make this picture clearer:
And now the problem is obvious. The votes not counted, overall, account for 6.2% of the electorate, (5.4% or 113,155 voters if we remove the “Others”, who all legitimately have not earned a seat) wheras the votes counted due to electorate lifeboats account for 2.2%. (46,117) This privileging of micro-parties that perpetually hold on to small electorates is ridiculous, and this makes it clearer than ever that an adjustment of the threshold is necessary. Act and United Future both don’t even earn a party seat even if you completely remove the threshold, yet are in parliament whe with a combined total of 19,043 votes, when the Conservatives are out with 4.1% or 86,616 votes.
This is ridiculous- as much as I dislike the conservatives, they deserve their chance to be laughed out of parliament on their own merits as the troop of troglodytes that they are, rather than excluded due to an artificially high threshold that serves only to protect Labour and National from new parties with genuine grass-roots support. Both the conservatives and Internet-Mana deserve seats in Parliament under these results, and both United Future and the ACT Party ought to be out on their asses in any system that doesn’t privilege the will of isolated electorates to throw in a “local MP” who usually does a terrible job of advocating for local interests, and doesn’t even live in the electorate in question.
The good news is the slight uptick in voter turnout- I still suspect we were hurt in this with regards to the rain for much of the country on Election Day, so I imagine the future effect from universalising advance voting is going to be much bigger. I suspect, however, that the increase in turnout is largely from conservative (small c, not just the party) and right-wing voters being energised to vote this election to prevent a change in government, and that this has been another election with increasing left-wing demotivation, most likely from people who want to be Labour supporters, but don’t want to vote for the party in its current fossilised, in-fighting state. I’m optimistic that if we can have an election where both the Left and the Right have strong showings, that we might be able to head back up in voter turnout. However that will depend on whether parties find an effective way to mobilise the youth vote, which is still largely untapped. (Probably due to the large amount of inter-generational war that is waged on behalf of various generations of more elderly New Zealanders that are over-represented in Parliament)